Bleak 2009 Hurricane Season Forecast for Home Insurers

Dec. 16, 2008 – Already reeling from one of the costliest Hurricane seasons on record for providers of homeowners insurance and other property and casualty insurance companies, meteorologists at Colorado State University recently announced their prediction for above-average tropical storm activity in the Atlantic Ocean in 2009.

Specifically, university researchers are predicting 14 named storms, including seven hurricanes – three of which will be “major” hurricanes capable of inflicting billions of dollars in storm-related damages. The 50-year average is 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 major hurricanes.

The extended-range forecast by Colorado State meteorological researchers William Gray and Phil Klotzbach indicate a 63 percent chance of at least one major hurricane making landfall on the United States Atlantic coastline. The long-term average probability of a major hurricane making landfall in the United States is 52 percent.

Gray has been forecasting hurricanes for 26 years and is one of the nation’s most respected storm prediction analysts. His predictions are watched closely by emergency services personnel and companies affected by major storm damage, such as homeowners insurance providers.

A year ago, Gray and Klotzbach predicted 13 named storms for the 2008 Atlantic storm season, including seven hurricanes – three of them major. In June they revised their storm season prediction to 15 named storms, including eight hurricanes – four them major. The season produced 16 named storms, eight hurricanes and five major hurricanes.

Although final totals are yet to be determined, the 2008 Atlantic storm season was at least the fourth-costliest in history and inflicted an estimated $10 billion in damages after Tropical Storm Fay and Hurricanes Ike and Gustav made landfall. Tropical Storm Fay doused Florida with torrential rains as it slowly moved inland, causing widespread flooding in many states. Hurricane Ike and Gustav made landfall along the Gulf coast, inflicting heavy homeowners insurance losses in Texas and other states.

Although their predictions are for more catastrophic storms in 2009, Klotzbach said there is a great deal of uncertainty in them due to the storm season being several months off in the future. The Atlantic storm season generally runs from about June 1 through Nov. 30.

The meteorologists are basing their 2009 Atlantic storm forecast on several factors, including warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures and the likely absence of recent El Nino conditions. El Nino is an occasional warming in the Pacific Ocean that can impact Atlantic storm formation by changing wind patterns in the eastern Atlantic and disrupting the creation of hurricanes.